Timber Talk 9/9/25

Jenna Reese
22 hours ago
6 min read

OFA Update

Paul Bunyan wants you!

The Paul Bunyan Show is at the heart of OFA's annual operations to support the forestry industry in Ohio. At this time, we are calling all members who are not already involved to volunteer and donate to this one-of-a-kind trade show that dates back to 1957. As an OFA member, you will receive complimentary tickets to attend, which you should watch for in your email this week. You can support one of the most unique expositions in the country by attending, volunteering, contributing monetarily, or sharing the graphic on the right with your network. Email info@ohioforest.org for more details.

Market Update

HardwoodReview Forecasting

With U.S. single-family housing starts already 7% slower than last year through Jun, and now set to trend seasonally lower through Dec, much was riding on a late-year surge in exports following final tariff and trade resolutions with the largest hardwood markets. But final resolutions are not there yet for three of the four largest buyers—China, Canada and Mexico—which collectively accounted for 63% of global demand in 2024. The ongoing uncertainties have contributed to 15%-20% year-overyear shipment declines to each of these markets in 2025 and, even with the threat of large reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs still lingering, none seem particularly anxious to shore up extra inventory. Accordingly, some of the optimism we and others had just a month ago has tempered a bit.

Still, from a market stability standpoint, low log availability and lumber production will continue to prevent major oversupply and price corrections, even if demand doesn’t materially improve through year-end. In fact, the market sector price index forecasts for the next two months (pages 4-5) are as flat as any we’ve published in 20 years. While the recent easing of Poplar and Red Oak prices indicates just how easily this market can be oversupplied, demand will just as easily outrun productive capacity the day it turns up even a little.

Legislative Update

The following is brought to us by our national partner, the Forest Resources Association (FRA)

FRA 2025 Legislative Fly-In and Fall Meeting, October 7-9

The FRA fly-in and fall meeting will take place at the Phoenix Park Hotel in Washington, DC, steps away from the Capitol. We encourage FRA members to attend and advocate for important legislation beneficial to the forest industry. Register HERE.

We encourage members to take action now on FRA’s Policy Issue Priorities.

By engaging your elected officials ahead of the Fly-In, you will help reinforce our message and strengthen our collective impact.

Federal Appropriations Update – September 2025

Congress is actively working to finalize appropriations for Fiscal Year 2026, with several individual spending bills already advanced in both chambers. While differences remain—particularly around defense, domestic programs, and discretionary spending levels- negotiators are making steady progress toward a bipartisan agreement.

To maintain momentum and avoid disruption, lawmakers are expected to pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) by September 30, extending current funding through November 15, 2025. This will allow additional time to reconcile priorities and complete a full-year package. Appropriators are prioritizing bills with broad support, including Agriculture, Military Construction, and the Legislative Branch, as part of a phased strategy to move the process forward.

Leadership Remarks

House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-OK-04) stated: “We’re committed to a responsible, bipartisan process that delivers stable funding and reflects the priorities of the American people. The continuing resolution gives us the time we need to get it right.”
House Appropriations Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03) added: “There’s real momentum behind these negotiations. We’re working across the aisle to ensure essential programs remain funded and communities aren’t left behind.”
Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) stated: “We’re focused on delivering responsible, bipartisan funding that meets the needs of families, communities, and the economy. There’s a shared commitment to getting this done.”
Senate Appropriations Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) added: “We’ve made meaningful progress across the subcommittees. I’m optimistic that we can reach agreement and avoid unnecessary delays.”

Appropriations Progress Tracker

Congressman Jared Golden Signs on to JWA

Congressman Jared Golden (D-ME-02) is a cosponsor of the Jobs in the Woods Act (H.R. 4575), a bipartisan bill to strengthen forestry workforce development across rural communities. The legislation directs the U.S. Department of Agriculture to establish a competitive grant program supporting career pathway training in forest management, wildfire mitigation, and timber operations. Golden’s support reflects his ongoing commitment to Maine’s forest economy and the skilled trades that sustain it. By backing this initiative, he joins a coalition of lawmakers focused on expanding access to good-paying jobs, improving forest health, and ensuring the next generation of workers is equipped to meet the demands of a changing landscape.

FRA JWA ACTION ALERT

Forest Service Seeks Public Comment on Roadless Rule

On August 29, 2025, the U.S. Forest Service published a notice in the Federal Register announcing its intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and initiate rulemaking to rescind the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule. This rule currently restricts road construction, reconstruction, and timber harvesting on approximately 45 million acres of National Forest System lands. The proposed action would return decision-making authority to local forest managers, excluding state-specific rules for Colorado and Idaho, which will remain intact. Public comments are being accepted through September 19, 2025, under docket number FS-2025-0001.

The administration argues that the rule imposes a “one-size-fits-all” restriction that limits wildfire suppression, forest management, and economic development in rural communities. The proposal aligns with recent executive orders aimed at increasing domestic timber harvest and reducing regulatory barriers to forest management. An EIS is being prepared to evaluate the effects of the rescission, with a final rule expected in late 2026.

Cooling Labor Market Strengthens Case for Fed Rate Cut—A Boost for Housing and Timber

The August 2025 jobs report, released today, showed a slowdown in hiring, with only 22,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of weak labor data, solidifying expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its upcoming September 17 meeting. A lower interest rate would reduce borrowing costs for homebuyers and developers, potentially boosting housing starts and improving mortgage affordability. This, in turn, could stimulate demand for lumber and wood products, as residential construction remains a key driver of timber consumption.

Each single-family home requires more than 13,000 board feet of lumber, so even a modest uptick in residential construction can translate into substantial demand across the timber supply chain. This linkage makes housing activity a critical driver for mill operations, log transportation, and wood product markets

Safety Update

Sedgwick Safety Services

Complimentary Workers’ Compensation Quote from Sedgwick

This is the time of year when you undoubtedly receive multiple phone calls, emails and hardcopy mail promoting workers' compensation programs. Our endorsed partner, Sedgwick, helps members save significantly on workers' compensation premiums and provides valuable advice to our members who are navigating Ohio’s workers' compensation system. Sedgwick’s clients annually save $160 million in workers’ compensation premium through their Group Rating and Group Retrospective Rating Programs. Sedgwick not only offers the savings but expert guidance of all areas of worker’ compensation including claims management as well as other cost containment programs.

If you are not participating in this member benefit, you can request a no-cost, no-obligation analysis of your potential savings. Please contact your Sedgwick program manager Peyton Rosier at peyton.rosier@sedgwick.com or phone 614-506-8195.